Well, here we go again. Just when Tesla shareholders thought they might get a break from the Elon Musk sideshow, the mercurial CEO has managed to embroil himself in yet another political drama—this time with a man who might reclaim the White House in a few months.
Donald Trump calling Musk a "TRAIN WRECK" on Truth Social? Not exactly what investors had penciled into their risk assessment models.
I've been tracking the Tesla-Musk saga since the "funding secured" days, and this latest episode feels like season 8 of a show that should've wrapped after season 4. According to Politico, Musk apparently harbors ambitions to create something called an "America Party" aligned with Trump. (Yes, you read that correctly.) But the bromance seems to have hit a rough patch with Trump publicly declaring that Musk has gone "completely off the rails."
Look, we've seen this movie before. Tesla stock moves in mysterious ways that often have precious little to do with how many cars they're actually selling. I call it the Musk Uncertainty Principle—the more closely you monitor what Elon's doing, the less you can predict what Tesla stock will do. And vice versa.
The numbers tell an interesting story. Tesla deliveries? Decent, not spectacular. Margins? Under pressure. Competition? Getting fiercer by the quarter.
Yet the stock had been climbing anyway—until this latest tweet-induced tailspin.
What we're witnessing is essentially a meme stock with a manufacturing division attached. Traditional metrics like P/E ratios seem almost quaint when applied to Tesla. Instead, the market plays a constant game of "What did Elon say and how bad might it be for business?"
Remember 2018? The whole "$420 funding secured" tweet that led to SEC charges and that settlement requiring oversight of his communications? History doesn't repeat, but it sure does rhyme. And we're hearing some familiar notes in this strange symphony.
The Musk-Trump relationship has more plot twists than a telenovela. First, Musk briefly joined Trump's business councils back in administration #1. Then Trump called him "another bullshit artist" not that long ago. Now they're... political allies? Were political allies? Who can keep up?
For anyone trying to analyze Tesla as an investment (poor souls), this creates an impossible analytical challenge. How exactly do you model the impact of your CEO feuding with a presidential candidate who was, until approximately five minutes ago, supposedly his new best friend?
There's no spreadsheet column for that.
I spoke with several institutional investors last month who admitted they've essentially given up trying to incorporate the "Musk factor" into their valuation models. "We just add or subtract 20% depending on the week's tweets," one portfolio manager told me, only half-joking.
The irony here is that Tesla still has genuinely revolutionary technology. Their energy business alone could be transformative if executed properly. But all of this exists in the long, erratic shadow of Musk's outsized persona.
Can Tesla's fundamental business strength ultimately outweigh the CEO's volatility? That's the trillion-dollar question.
My sense, having covered Tesla since its early days, is that the company would benefit immensely from just six months of Musk staying focused on cars and batteries rather than politics and social media feuds. But that scenario seems about as likely as me winning next year's Daytona 500.
In the meantime, perhaps someone should remind both Musk and Trump that publicly traded companies aren't supposed to provide this much drama. Wall Street generally rewards predictable boredom over exciting chaos.
Then again... when has Tesla ever done anything the conventional way?
