Donald Trump has found his economic fall guy, and—surprise, surprise—it's Joe Biden.
In what might be the least shocking development since politicians discovered Twitter, the former president is busy pinning disappointing first-quarter GDP numbers squarely on Biden's lapel. But here's where it gets interesting: Trump isn't just blaming Biden for the past. He's pre-blaming him for the future.
"Look, not only was Q1 Biden's fault," Trump declared during Wednesday's Cabinet meeting, "you could even say the next quarter is sort of Biden because it doesn't just happen on a daily or hourly basis."
I've covered economic finger-pointing since the Obama administration, and this preemptive blame extension might be the most creative accounting of presidential economic responsibility I've ever witnessed.
What Trump's essentially crafting is a convenient timeline of economic accountability that goes something like this:
- Q1 2025: Totally Biden's economy
- Q2 2025: Still kinda Biden's economy
- Q3 2025: Maybe starting to be Trump's economy (if things look good)
- Q4 2025: Definitely Trump's economy (if markets are up)
It's like economic responsibility operates on some weird delayed fuse that conveniently burns slower when the numbers disappoint.
Is there some truth to economic lag? Sure. Policy effects don't materialize overnight. But there's something about the eagerness of this blame allocation that raises my reporter's eyebrows.
Why would a president—any president—start making excuses for economic data we haven't even seen yet?
(Unless, of course, they're seeing internal projections that suggest Q2 might continue the downward trend.)
Two consecutive quarters of negative growth would meet the technical definition of recession that many economists use, though the official declaration comes from the National Bureau of Economic Research, which looks at a broader set of indicators.
I spoke with several economists who rolled their eyes at the whole blame game. "Presidents take credit for sunny days and blame their predecessors for rain," said one analyst who requested anonymity to speak candidly. "Markets care about numbers, not narratives."
The business community certainly operates on a different timeline. When CEOs present disappointing earnings, corporate boards rarely accept "blame the last guy" as a comprehensive strategy... especially six months into the job.
There's a deeper question lurking beneath all this rhetorical positioning. If the administration genuinely believes economic challenges will continue, what's their actual plan? Will they pursue stimulus measures? Or does the blame-shifting approach reduce their perceived need to act urgently?
The financial world, pragmatic as always, will judge this administration on results rather than rhetoric. But that preemptive extension of blame might inadvertently be the most revealing economic indicator we've seen all week.
Sometimes what politicians say between the lines—those little tells and hedges—matter more than their headline statements.
After all, nobody builds an excuse unless they think they might need one.
